Target Price Playground
EXC
$46.16
🟢
EXC IV: 17.2% — LOW
(-54.8% vs 30d avg of 38.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $41 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $46 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.49 · Δ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If EXC hits $41 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$351 (235.6%) on $149 risked, vs $-516 (-11.2%) for 100 shares on $4,616. Options give 21.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if EXC is at $41. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if EXC hits $41 by Dec 18
+$351
+235.6% on $149 risked
Max Profit
+$4,451
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$149
Premium paid
Break-even
$44.51
-3.57% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
15%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-47.02 / -1.2 / 6.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| EXC Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37 (-20%) | +$731 | +$740 | +$749 | +$758 |
| $39 (-15%) | +$503 | +$509 | +$518 | +$527 |
| $41 (-11%) ← target | +$336 | +$337 | +$342 | +$351 |
| $42 (-10%) | +$287 | +$286 | +$289 | +$297 |
| $44 (-5%) | +$102 | +$88 | +$73 | +$66 |
| $45 (-2%) | +$16 | -$4 | -$30 | -$73 |
| $46 (0%) ← spot | -$28 | -$50 | -$79 | -$149 |
| $47 (+2%) | -$64 | -$85 | -$112 | -$149 |
| $48 (+5%) | -$102 | -$119 | -$138 | -$149 |
| $51 (+10%) | -$134 | -$143 | -$148 | -$149 |
| $53 (+15%) | -$145 | -$148 | -$149 | -$149 |
| $55 (+20%) | -$148 | -$149 | -$149 | -$149 |
Uses EXC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.