Target Price Playground
EXC
$46.16
๐ข
EXC IV: 17.2% โ LOW
(-54.8% vs 30d avg of 38.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $52 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
48d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $46.16 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If EXC hits $52 by Dec 18: the long stock returns +$584 (12.7%) on $4,616 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Dec 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if EXC hits $52 by Dec 18
+$584
+12.7% on $4,616 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$4,616
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$46.16
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
10%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| EXC Price | Today | Nov 30 | Dec 30 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $37 (-20%) | -$923 | -$923 | -$923 |
| $39 (-15%) | -$692 | -$692 | -$692 |
| $42 (-10%) | -$462 | -$462 | -$462 |
| $44 (-5%) | -$231 | -$231 | -$231 |
| $45 (-2%) | -$92 | -$92 | -$92 |
| $46 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $47 (+2%) | +$92 | +$92 | +$92 |
| $48 (+5%) | +$231 | +$231 | +$231 |
| $51 (+10%) | +$462 | +$462 | +$462 |
| $52 (+13%) โ target | +$584 | +$584 | +$584 |
| $53 (+15%) | +$692 | +$692 | +$692 |
| $55 (+20%) | +$923 | +$923 | +$923 |
Uses EXC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.