Target Price Playground
EXC
$46.16
🟢
EXC IV: 17.2% — LOW
(-54.8% vs 30d avg of 38.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $51 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $46.16 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $44 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.6 · Δ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If EXC hits $51 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$424 (9.1%) on $4,676 risked, vs +$484 (10.5%) for 100 shares on $4,616. Options give 0.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if EXC is at $51. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if EXC hits $51 by Dec 18
+$424
+9.1% on $4,676 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$276
Put floors you at $44
Break-even
$46.76
+1.3% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
17%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
76.14 / -1.02 / 5.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| EXC Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37 (-20%) | -$300 | -$293 | -$285 | -$276 |
| $39 (-15%) | -$291 | -$289 | -$284 | -$276 |
| $42 (-10%) | -$253 | -$264 | -$275 | -$276 |
| $44 (-5%) | -$162 | -$182 | -$210 | -$276 |
| $45 (-2%) | -$77 | -$97 | -$122 | -$152 |
| $46 (0%) ← spot | -$11 | -$27 | -$47 | -$60 |
| $47 (+2%) | +$64 | +$50 | +$37 | +$32 |
| $48 (+5%) | +$186 | +$178 | +$172 | +$171 |
| $51 (+10%) ← target | +$427 | +$425 | +$424 | +$424 |
| $53 (+15%) | +$633 | +$632 | +$632 | +$632 |
| $55 (+20%) | +$863 | +$863 | +$863 | +$863 |
Uses EXC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.