Target Price Playground
EXC
$46.16
🟢
EXC IV: 17.2% — LOW
(-54.8% vs 30d avg of 38.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $53 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $46 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.45 · Δ 0.53
LONG PUT · $46 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.49 · Δ -0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If EXC hits $53 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$406 (138.1%) on $294 risked, vs +$684 (14.8%) for 100 shares on $4,616. Options give 9.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if EXC is at $53. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if EXC hits $53 by Dec 18
+$406
+138.1% on $294 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$294
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$48.94
+6.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
5%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
5.63 / -2.5 / 13.29
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| EXC Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37 (-20%) | +$586 | +$595 | +$604 | +$613 |
| $39 (-15%) | +$361 | +$365 | +$373 | +$382 |
| $42 (-10%) | +$159 | +$148 | +$145 | +$152 |
| $44 (-5%) | +$21 | -$16 | -$57 | -$79 |
| $45 (-2%) | -$12 | -$61 | -$124 | -$218 |
| $46 (0%) ← spot | -$10 | -$62 | -$129 | -$278 |
| $47 (+2%) | +$11 | -$40 | -$103 | -$186 |
| $48 (+5%) | +$74 | +$31 | -$15 | -$47 |
| $51 (+10%) | +$241 | +$215 | +$195 | +$184 |
| $53 (+15%) ← target | +$441 | +$426 | +$415 | +$406 |
| $55 (+20%) | +$674 | +$663 | +$654 | +$645 |
Uses EXC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.