Target Price Playground
HON
$218.33
🟢
HON IV: 27.7% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 54.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $220 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.2 · Δ -0.5
SHORT PUT · $200 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.05 · Δ -0.19
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If HON hits $190 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,385 (225.2%) on $615 risked, vs $-2,833 (-13.0%) for 100 shares on $21,833. Options give 17.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HON is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if HON hits $190 by Dec 18
+$1,385
+225.2% on $615 risked
Max Profit
+$1,385
If the stock ≤ $200 at expiry
Max Loss
−$615
Net debit
Break-even
$213.85
-2.05% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
25%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-31.44 / -2.16 / 11.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| HON Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 (-20%) | +$1,261 | +$1,321 | +$1,372 | +$1,385 |
| $186 (-15%) | +$1,087 | +$1,178 | +$1,300 | +$1,385 |
| $190 (-13%) ← target | +$986 | +$1,079 | +$1,222 | +$1,385 |
| $197 (-10%) | +$809 | +$888 | +$1,030 | +$1,385 |
| $207 (-5%) | +$464 | +$483 | +$519 | +$644 |
| $214 (-2%) | +$253 | +$228 | +$174 | -$11 |
| $218 (0%) ← spot | +$120 | +$69 | -$34 | -$448 |
| $223 (+2%) | -$4 | -$75 | -$209 | -$615 |
| $229 (+5%) | -$166 | -$254 | -$400 | -$615 |
| $240 (+10%) | -$367 | -$452 | -$558 | -$615 |
| $251 (+15%) | -$491 | -$552 | -$604 | -$615 |
| $262 (+20%) | -$558 | -$594 | -$613 | -$615 |
Uses HON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.