Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
HON
$218.33
🟢
HON IV: 27.7% — LOW (-49.4% vs 30d avg of 54.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $230 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $200 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.05 · Δ -0.19
P&L at Expiry Now $218 Target $230 $153 $218 $284
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If HON hits $230 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$205 (1.0%) on $-205 credit (max loss $19,795), vs +$1,167 (5.3%) for 100 shares on $21,833. Options give 0.2× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HON is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if HON hits $230 by Dec 18
+$205
+1.0% on $19,795 max loss
Max Profit
+$205
If the stock ≥ $200 at expiry
Max Loss
−$19,795
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$197.95
-9.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
18.58 / 6.33 / -19.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

HON Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$175 (-20%) -$2,343 -$2,310 -$2,299 -$2,329
$186 (-15%) -$1,480 -$1,384 -$1,281 -$1,237
$197 (-10%) -$807 -$667 -$481 -$145
$207 (-5%) -$345 -$204 -$24 +$205
$214 (-2%) -$158 -$35 +$105 +$205
$218 (0%) ← spot -$65 +$42 +$152 +$205
$223 (+2%) +$8 +$97 +$178 +$205
$230 (+5%) ← target +$92 +$154 +$198 +$205
$240 (+10%) +$156 +$189 +$204 +$205
$251 (+15%) +$187 +$201 +$205 +$205
$262 (+20%) +$199 +$204 +$205 +$205
Uses HON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.