Target Price Playground
HON
$218.33
🟢
HON IV: 27.7% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 54.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $235 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $218.33 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $235 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.32 · Δ 0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If HON hits $235 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$2,099 (9.8%) on $21,401 risked, vs +$1,667 (7.6%) for 100 shares on $21,833. Options give 1.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HON is at $235. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if HON hits $235 by Dec 18
+$2,099
+9.8% on $21,401 risked
Max Profit
+$2,099
If the stock ≥ $235 at expiry
Max Loss
−$21,401
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$214.01
-1.98% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
70.59 / 9.6 / -27.28
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| HON Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 (-20%) | -$3,939 | -$3,935 | -$3,935 | -$3,935 |
| $186 (-15%) | -$2,861 | -$2,847 | -$2,843 | -$2,843 |
| $197 (-10%) | -$1,817 | -$1,773 | -$1,752 | -$1,751 |
| $207 (-5%) | -$848 | -$751 | -$677 | -$660 |
| $214 (-2%) | -$321 | -$186 | -$58 | -$5 |
| $218 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | +$160 | +$330 | +$432 |
| $223 (+2%) | +$295 | +$477 | +$687 | +$869 |
| $229 (+5%) | +$684 | +$890 | +$1,148 | +$1,524 |
| $235 (+8%) ← target | +$971 | +$1,188 | +$1,464 | +$2,099 |
| $240 (+10%) | +$1,187 | +$1,404 | +$1,675 | +$2,099 |
| $251 (+15%) | +$1,526 | +$1,718 | +$1,931 | +$2,099 |
| $262 (+20%) | +$1,733 | +$1,883 | +$2,023 | +$2,099 |
Uses HON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.