Target Price Playground
HON
$218.33
🟢
HON IV: 27.7% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 54.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $220 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $10.0 · Δ -0.49
SHORT PUT · $205 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.96 · Δ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If HON hits $205 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$969 (160.5%) on $604 risked, vs $-1,333 (-6.1%) for 100 shares on $21,833. Options give 26.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HON is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if HON hits $205 by Dec 18
+$969
+160.5% on $604 risked
Max Profit
+$950
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$604
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$219.94
+0.74% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-23.65 / 1.08 / 14.31
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| HON Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 (-20%) | +$799 | +$820 | +$829 | +$822 |
| $186 (-15%) | +$745 | +$794 | +$840 | +$838 |
| $197 (-10%) | +$628 | +$694 | +$792 | +$908 |
| $205 (-6%) ← target | +$490 | +$549 | +$649 | +$1,049 |
| $207 (-5%) | +$444 | +$498 | +$589 | +$869 |
| $214 (-2%) | +$311 | +$343 | +$393 | +$436 |
| $218 (0%) ← spot | +$219 | +$232 | +$248 | +$196 |
| $223 (+2%) | +$125 | +$121 | +$104 | -$3 |
| $229 (+5%) | -$10 | -$37 | -$94 | -$231 |
| $240 (+10%) | -$207 | -$258 | -$339 | -$455 |
| $251 (+15%) | -$356 | -$412 | -$481 | -$553 |
| $262 (+20%) | -$459 | -$505 | -$552 | -$589 |
Uses HON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.