Target Price Playground
HON
$218.33
🟢
HON IV: 27.7% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 54.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $220 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.2 · Δ -0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If HON hits $190 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$2,180 (265.9%) on $820 risked, vs $-2,833 (-13.0%) for 100 shares on $21,833. Options give 20.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HON is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if HON hits $190 by Dec 18
+$2,180
+265.9% on $820 risked
Max Profit
+$21,180
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$820
Premium paid
Break-even
$211.80
-2.99% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
25%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-50.02 / -8.5 / 31.69
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| HON Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 (-20%) | +$3,604 | +$3,632 | +$3,671 | +$3,714 |
| $186 (-15%) | +$2,567 | +$2,562 | +$2,581 | +$2,622 |
| $190 (-13%) ← target | +$2,168 | +$2,143 | +$2,143 | +$2,180 |
| $197 (-10%) | +$1,616 | +$1,555 | +$1,511 | +$1,530 |
| $207 (-5%) | +$809 | +$687 | +$543 | +$439 |
| $214 (-2%) | +$411 | +$263 | +$69 | -$216 |
| $218 (0%) ← spot | +$184 | +$27 | -$186 | -$653 |
| $223 (+2%) | -$12 | -$172 | -$387 | -$820 |
| $229 (+5%) | -$251 | -$403 | -$596 | -$820 |
| $240 (+10%) | -$523 | -$641 | -$762 | -$820 |
| $251 (+15%) | -$678 | -$753 | -$809 | -$820 |
| $262 (+20%) | -$757 | -$798 | -$818 | -$820 |
Uses HON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.