Target Price Playground
HON
$218.33
🟢
HON IV: 27.7% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 54.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $240 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $218.33 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $205 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.96 · Δ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If HON hits $240 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$1,771 (8.0%) on $22,229 risked, vs +$2,167 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $21,833. Options give 0.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HON is at $240. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if HON hits $240 by Dec 18
+$1,771
+8.0% on $22,229 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$1,729
Put floors you at $205
Break-even
$222.29
+1.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
74.72 / -7.49 / 25.31
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| HON Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 (-20%) | -$1,765 | -$1,777 | -$1,766 | -$1,729 |
| $186 (-15%) | -$1,598 | -$1,670 | -$1,732 | -$1,729 |
| $197 (-10%) | -$1,265 | -$1,394 | -$1,555 | -$1,729 |
| $207 (-5%) | -$730 | -$880 | -$1,080 | -$1,488 |
| $214 (-2%) | -$313 | -$455 | -$633 | -$833 |
| $218 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$129 | -$280 | -$396 |
| $223 (+2%) | +$338 | +$225 | +$105 | +$41 |
| $229 (+5%) | +$884 | +$796 | +$719 | +$696 |
| $240 (+10%) ← target | +$1,854 | +$1,804 | +$1,774 | +$1,771 |
| $251 (+15%) | +$2,912 | +$2,888 | +$2,879 | +$2,879 |
| $262 (+20%) | +$3,983 | +$3,973 | +$3,971 | +$3,971 |
Uses HON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.