Target Price Playground
HON
$218.33
🟢
HON IV: 27.7% — LOW
(-49.4% vs 30d avg of 54.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $250 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $220 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.85 · Δ 0.5
LONG PUT · $220 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $8.2 · Δ -0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If HON hits $250 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$1,295 (76.0%) on $1,705 risked, vs +$3,167 (14.5%) for 100 shares on $21,833. Options give 5.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HON is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if HON hits $250 by Dec 18
+$1,295
+76.0% on $1,705 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$1,705
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$202.95
-7.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
20%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
0.06 / -18.08 / 63.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| HON Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $175 (-20%) | +$2,738 | +$2,751 | +$2,786 | +$2,829 |
| $186 (-15%) | +$1,756 | +$1,704 | +$1,698 | +$1,737 |
| $197 (-10%) | +$947 | +$782 | +$651 | +$645 |
| $207 (-5%) | +$424 | +$136 | -$195 | -$446 |
| $214 (-2%) | +$283 | -$57 | -$488 | -$1,101 |
| $218 (0%) ← spot | +$267 | -$92 | -$560 | -$1,538 |
| $223 (+2%) | +$311 | -$53 | -$526 | -$1,435 |
| $229 (+5%) | +$488 | +$140 | -$290 | -$780 |
| $240 (+10%) | +$1,034 | +$756 | +$471 | +$311 |
| $250 (+15%) ← target | +$1,732 | +$1,531 | +$1,365 | +$1,295 |
| $262 (+20%) | +$2,751 | +$2,626 | +$2,542 | +$2,495 |
Uses HON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.