Target Price Playground
HON
$228.75
๐ข
HON IV: 29.8% โ LOW
(-55.1% vs 30d avg of 66.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $245 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $228.75 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $245 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.51 ยท ฮ 0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If HON hits $245 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$2,276 (10.2%) on $22,224 risked, vs +$1,625 (7.1%) for 100 shares on $22,875. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if HON is at $245. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if HON hits $245 by Aug 21
+$2,276
+10.2% on $22,224 risked
Max Profit
+$2,276
If the stock โฅ $245 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$22,224
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$222.24
-2.85% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.38 / 9.57 / -35.34
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| HON Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $183 (-20%) | -$3,939 | -$3,927 | -$3,924 | -$3,924 |
| $194 (-15%) | -$2,833 | -$2,795 | -$2,781 | -$2,780 |
| $206 (-10%) | -$1,781 | -$1,697 | -$1,644 | -$1,636 |
| $217 (-5%) | -$825 | -$676 | -$543 | -$493 |
| $224 (-2%) | -$312 | -$124 | +$73 | +$193 |
| $229 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$212 | +$452 | +$651 |
| $233 (+2%) | +$286 | +$519 | +$797 | +$1,109 |
| $240 (+5%) | +$666 | +$920 | +$1,238 | +$1,795 |
| $245 (+7%) โ target | +$897 | +$1,159 | +$1,489 | +$2,276 |
| $252 (+10%) | +$1,169 | +$1,431 | +$1,756 | +$2,276 |
| $263 (+15%) | +$1,523 | +$1,762 | +$2,033 | +$2,276 |
| $275 (+20%) | +$1,757 | +$1,956 | +$2,152 | +$2,276 |
Uses HON's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.