Target Price Playground
ISRG
$404.76
🟢
ISRG IV: 36.6% — LOW
(-37.0% vs 30d avg of 58.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $355 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $405 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $26.3 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $370 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.88 · Δ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $355 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$2,058 (142.7%) on $1,442 risked, vs $-4,976 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $40,476. Options give 11.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $355. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $355 by Dec 18
+$2,058
+142.7% on $1,442 risked
Max Profit
+$2,058
If the stock ≤ $370 at expiry
Max Loss
−$1,442
Net debit
Break-even
$390.58
-3.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-19.09 / -3.4 / 12.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $324 (-20%) | +$1,546 | +$1,706 | +$1,923 | +$2,058 |
| $344 (-15%) | +$1,219 | +$1,373 | +$1,645 | +$2,058 |
| $355 (-12%) ← target | +$1,010 | +$1,141 | +$1,393 | +$2,058 |
| $364 (-10%) | +$822 | +$921 | +$1,124 | +$2,058 |
| $385 (-5%) | +$395 | +$406 | +$429 | +$606 |
| $397 (-2%) | +$142 | +$97 | +$1 | -$608 |
| $405 (0%) ← spot | -$20 | -$99 | -$265 | -$1,418 |
| $413 (+2%) | -$175 | -$284 | -$505 | -$1,442 |
| $425 (+5%) | -$390 | -$533 | -$805 | -$1,442 |
| $445 (+10%) | -$696 | -$867 | -$1,144 | -$1,442 |
| $465 (+15%) | -$933 | -$1,100 | -$1,320 | -$1,442 |
| $486 (+20%) | -$1,107 | -$1,250 | -$1,398 | -$1,442 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.