Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
ISRG
$404.76
🟢
ISRG IV: 36.6% — LOW (-37.0% vs 30d avg of 58.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $425 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

72d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $370 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.88 · Δ -0.26
P&L at Expiry Now $405 Target $425 $283 $405 $526
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If ISRG hits $425 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$1,188 (3.3%) on $-1,188 credit (max loss $35,812), vs +$2,024 (5.0%) for 100 shares on $40,476. Options give 0.7× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $425. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if ISRG hits $425 by Dec 18
+$1,188
+3.3% on $35,812 max loss
Max Profit
+$1,188
If the stock ≥ $370 at expiry
Max Loss
−$35,812
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$358.12
-11.52% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
25.78 / 14.76 / -58.21
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

ISRG Price Today Oct 31 Nov 24 Dec 18 (exp)
$324 (-20%) -$3,872 -$3,662 -$3,460 -$3,431
$344 (-15%) -$2,492 -$2,171 -$1,774 -$1,407
$364 (-10%) -$1,381 -$993 -$472 +$616
$385 (-5%) -$534 -$138 +$382 +$1,188
$397 (-2%) -$141 +$234 +$701 +$1,188
$405 (0%) ← spot +$78 +$432 +$850 +$1,188
$413 (+2%) +$266 +$594 +$959 +$1,188
$425 (+5%) ← target +$498 +$782 +$1,065 +$1,188
$445 (+10%) +$773 +$982 +$1,149 +$1,188
$465 (+15%) +$946 +$1,089 +$1,177 +$1,188
$486 (+20%) +$1,050 +$1,143 +$1,185 +$1,188
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.