Target Price Playground
ISRG
$404.76
🟢
ISRG IV: 36.6% — LOW
(-37.0% vs 30d avg of 58.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $435 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $404.76 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $435 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.7 · Δ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $435 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$4,794 (12.4%) on $38,706 risked, vs +$3,024 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $40,476. Options give 1.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $435. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $435 by Dec 18
+$4,794
+12.4% on $38,706 risked
Max Profit
+$4,794
If the stock ≥ $435 at expiry
Max Loss
−$38,706
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$387.06
-4.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
61.53 / 19.35 / -65.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $324 (-20%) | -$6,438 | -$6,357 | -$6,326 | -$6,325 |
| $344 (-15%) | -$4,568 | -$4,405 | -$4,311 | -$4,301 |
| $364 (-10%) | -$2,826 | -$2,552 | -$2,333 | -$2,278 |
| $385 (-5%) | -$1,258 | -$860 | -$457 | -$254 |
| $397 (-2%) | -$417 | +$50 | +$572 | +$960 |
| $405 (0%) ← spot | +$99 | +$606 | +$1,203 | +$1,770 |
| $413 (+2%) | +$579 | +$1,120 | +$1,780 | +$2,580 |
| $425 (+5%) | +$1,228 | +$1,805 | +$2,534 | +$3,794 |
| $435 (+7%) ← target | +$1,701 | +$2,294 | +$3,051 | +$4,794 |
| $445 (+10%) | +$2,130 | +$2,726 | +$3,482 | +$4,794 |
| $465 (+15%) | +$2,821 | +$3,392 | +$4,074 | +$4,794 |
| $486 (+20%) | +$3,333 | +$3,845 | +$4,400 | +$4,794 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.