Target Price Playground
ISRG
$404.76
🟢
ISRG IV: 36.6% — LOW
(-37.0% vs 30d avg of 58.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $385 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $405 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $29.3 · Δ -0.44
SHORT PUT · $385 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.2 · Δ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $385 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,609 (133.0%) on $1,210 risked, vs $-1,976 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $40,476. Options give 27.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $385. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $385 by Dec 18
+$1,609
+133.0% on $1,210 risked
Max Profit
+$1,558
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$1,196
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$417.06
+3.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-10.59 / 1.41 / 14.86
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $324 (-20%) | +$641 | +$698 | +$733 | +$675 |
| $344 (-15%) | +$578 | +$670 | +$782 | +$758 |
| $364 (-10%) | +$464 | +$574 | +$755 | +$998 |
| $385 (-5%) ← target | +$295 | +$394 | +$576 | +$1,530 |
| $397 (-2%) | +$182 | +$261 | +$407 | +$830 |
| $405 (0%) ← spot | +$98 | +$160 | +$268 | +$420 |
| $413 (+2%) | +$12 | +$53 | +$118 | +$71 |
| $425 (+5%) | -$120 | -$110 | -$113 | -$345 |
| $445 (+10%) | -$336 | -$375 | -$471 | -$795 |
| $465 (+15%) | -$533 | -$608 | -$752 | -$1,030 |
| $486 (+20%) | -$703 | -$795 | -$945 | -$1,139 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.