Target Price Playground
ISRG
$404.76
🟢
ISRG IV: 36.6% — LOW
(-37.0% vs 30d avg of 58.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $455 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $405 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $29.7 · Δ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $455 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$2,030 (68.4%) on $2,970 risked, vs +$5,024 (12.4%) for 100 shares on $40,476. Options give 5.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $455. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $455 by Dec 18
+$2,030
+68.4% on $2,970 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$2,970
Premium paid
Break-even
$434.70
+7.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
55.7 / -22.35 / 71.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $324 (-20%) | -$2,683 | -$2,852 | -$2,956 | -$2,970 |
| $344 (-15%) | -$2,366 | -$2,652 | -$2,896 | -$2,970 |
| $364 (-10%) | -$1,851 | -$2,259 | -$2,696 | -$2,970 |
| $385 (-5%) | -$1,101 | -$1,605 | -$2,221 | -$2,970 |
| $397 (-2%) | -$533 | -$1,072 | -$1,754 | -$2,970 |
| $405 (0%) ← spot | -$104 | -$656 | -$1,360 | -$2,970 |
| $413 (+2%) | +$363 | -$193 | -$898 | -$2,184 |
| $425 (+5%) | +$1,130 | +$584 | -$91 | -$970 |
| $445 (+10%) | +$2,573 | +$2,074 | +$1,510 | +$1,054 |
| $455 (+12%) ← target | +$3,332 | +$2,865 | +$2,368 | +$2,030 |
| $465 (+15%) | +$4,186 | +$3,757 | +$3,329 | +$3,077 |
| $486 (+20%) | +$5,931 | +$5,577 | +$5,267 | +$5,101 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.