Target Price Playground
ISRG
$404.76
🟢
ISRG IV: 36.6% — LOW
(-37.0% vs 30d avg of 58.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $355 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $405 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $26.3 · Δ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $355 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$2,370 (90.1%) on $2,630 risked, vs $-4,976 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $40,476. Options give 7.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $355. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $355 by Dec 18
+$2,370
+90.1% on $2,630 risked
Max Profit
+$37,870
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$2,630
Premium paid
Break-even
$378.70
-6.44% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-44.87 / -18.15 / 71.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $324 (-20%) | +$5,418 | +$5,368 | +$5,383 | +$5,489 |
| $344 (-15%) | +$3,711 | +$3,544 | +$3,419 | +$3,465 |
| $355 (-12%) ← target | +$2,867 | +$2,633 | +$2,407 | +$2,370 |
| $364 (-10%) | +$2,203 | +$1,914 | +$1,596 | +$1,442 |
| $385 (-5%) | +$929 | +$544 | +$47 | -$582 |
| $397 (-2%) | +$283 | -$137 | -$700 | -$1,796 |
| $405 (0%) ← spot | -$98 | -$531 | -$1,115 | -$2,606 |
| $413 (+2%) | -$441 | -$878 | -$1,464 | -$2,630 |
| $425 (+5%) | -$888 | -$1,315 | -$1,871 | -$2,630 |
| $445 (+10%) | -$1,469 | -$1,849 | -$2,293 | -$2,630 |
| $465 (+15%) | -$1,879 | -$2,189 | -$2,497 | -$2,630 |
| $486 (+20%) | -$2,157 | -$2,393 | -$2,583 | -$2,630 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.