Target Price Playground
ISRG
$404.76
🟢
ISRG IV: 36.6% — LOW
(-37.0% vs 30d avg of 58.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $404.76 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $385 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $17.2 · Δ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $445 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$2,304 (5.5%) on $42,196 risked, vs +$4,024 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $40,476. Options give 0.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $445 by Dec 18
+$2,304
+5.5% on $42,196 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$3,696
Put floors you at $385
Break-even
$421.96
+4.25% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
66.44 / -16.54 / 68.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $324 (-20%) | -$3,525 | -$3,664 | -$3,755 | -$3,696 |
| $344 (-15%) | -$3,041 | -$3,302 | -$3,582 | -$3,696 |
| $364 (-10%) | -$2,313 | -$2,674 | -$3,138 | -$3,696 |
| $385 (-5%) | -$1,326 | -$1,737 | -$2,292 | -$3,696 |
| $397 (-2%) | -$612 | -$1,026 | -$1,576 | -$2,530 |
| $405 (0%) ← spot | -$89 | -$494 | -$1,019 | -$1,720 |
| $413 (+2%) | +$470 | +$80 | -$406 | -$910 |
| $425 (+5%) | +$1,366 | +$1,010 | +$600 | +$304 |
| $445 (+10%) ← target | +$2,977 | +$2,691 | +$2,415 | +$2,304 |
| $465 (+15%) | +$4,760 | +$4,550 | +$4,387 | +$4,351 |
| $486 (+20%) | +$6,618 | +$6,473 | +$6,385 | +$6,375 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.