Target Price Playground
ISRG
$404.76
🟢
ISRG IV: 36.6% — LOW
(-37.0% vs 30d avg of 58.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $465 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $405 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $29.7 · Δ 0.56
LONG PUT · $405 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $26.3 · Δ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $465 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$400 (7.1%) on $5,600 risked, vs +$6,024 (14.9%) for 100 shares on $40,476. Options give 0.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $465. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $465 by Dec 18
+$400
+7.1% on $5,600 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$5,600
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$349.00
-13.78% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
10.82 / -40.51 / 142.16
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $324 (-20%) | +$2,734 | +$2,515 | +$2,427 | +$2,519 |
| $344 (-15%) | +$1,344 | +$892 | +$523 | +$495 |
| $364 (-10%) | +$352 | -$344 | -$1,100 | -$1,528 |
| $385 (-5%) | -$173 | -$1,061 | -$2,174 | -$3,552 |
| $397 (-2%) | -$249 | -$1,208 | -$2,455 | -$4,766 |
| $405 (0%) ← spot | -$202 | -$1,186 | -$2,475 | -$5,576 |
| $413 (+2%) | -$78 | -$1,071 | -$2,362 | -$4,814 |
| $425 (+5%) | +$243 | -$732 | -$1,962 | -$3,600 |
| $445 (+10%) | +$1,104 | +$224 | -$783 | -$1,576 |
| $465 (+15%) ← target | +$2,276 | +$1,533 | +$791 | +$400 |
| $486 (+20%) | +$3,774 | +$3,184 | +$2,684 | +$2,471 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.