Target Price Playground
ISRG
$406.78
๐ข
ISRG IV: 36.6% โ LOW
(-37.3% vs 30d avg of 58.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $440 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $406.78 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $440 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.2 ยท ฮ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If ISRG hits $440 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$5,042 (12.9%) on $38,958 risked, vs +$3,322 (8.2%) for 100 shares on $40,678. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ISRG is at $440. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if ISRG hits $440 by Sep 18
+$5,042
+12.9% on $38,958 risked
Max Profit
+$5,042
If the stock โฅ $440 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$38,958
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$389.58
-4.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
61.72 / 21.55 / -64.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| ISRG Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $325 (-20%) | -$6,530 | -$6,448 | -$6,417 | -$6,416 |
| $346 (-15%) | -$4,647 | -$4,485 | -$4,392 | -$4,382 |
| $366 (-10%) | -$2,889 | -$2,615 | -$2,400 | -$2,348 |
| $386 (-5%) | -$1,300 | -$902 | -$505 | -$314 |
| $399 (-2%) | -$443 | +$25 | +$543 | +$906 |
| $407 (0%) โ spot | +$85 | +$595 | +$1,188 | +$1,720 |
| $415 (+2%) | +$578 | +$1,122 | +$1,783 | +$2,534 |
| $427 (+5%) | +$1,247 | +$1,832 | +$2,568 | +$3,754 |
| $440 (+8%) โ target | +$1,866 | +$2,473 | +$3,249 | +$5,042 |
| $447 (+10%) | +$2,185 | +$2,796 | +$3,574 | +$5,042 |
| $468 (+15%) | +$2,913 | +$3,504 | +$4,222 | +$5,042 |
| $488 (+20%) | +$3,459 | +$3,997 | +$4,592 | +$5,042 |
Uses ISRG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.