Target Price Playground
LIN
$489.95
🟢
LIN IV: 23.4% — LOW
(-47.1% vs 30d avg of 44.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $430 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $490 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $18.3 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $450 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $5.92 · Δ -0.18
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If LIN hits $430 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$2,762 (223.1%) on $1,238 risked, vs $-5,995 (-12.2%) for 100 shares on $48,995. Options give 18.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LIN is at $430. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if LIN hits $430 by Dec 18
+$2,762
+223.1% on $1,238 risked
Max Profit
+$2,762
If the stock ≤ $450 at expiry
Max Loss
−$1,238
Net debit
Break-even
$477.62
-2.52% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
25%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-26.68 / -3.45 / 32.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| LIN Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $392 (-20%) | +$2,528 | +$2,648 | +$2,739 | +$2,762 |
| $416 (-15%) | +$2,175 | +$2,369 | +$2,614 | +$2,762 |
| $430 (-12%) ← target | +$1,873 | +$2,074 | +$2,386 | +$2,762 |
| $441 (-10%) | +$1,581 | +$1,757 | +$2,067 | +$2,762 |
| $465 (-5%) | +$834 | +$878 | +$957 | +$1,217 |
| $480 (-2%) | +$382 | +$332 | +$217 | -$253 |
| $490 (0%) ← spot | +$103 | -$0 | -$214 | -$1,233 |
| $500 (+2%) | -$152 | -$293 | -$561 | -$1,238 |
| $514 (+5%) | -$475 | -$643 | -$915 | -$1,238 |
| $539 (+10%) | -$853 | -$1,001 | -$1,169 | -$1,238 |
| $563 (+15%) | -$1,065 | -$1,159 | -$1,228 | -$1,238 |
| $588 (+20%) | -$1,168 | -$1,216 | -$1,237 | -$1,238 |
Uses LIN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.