LRCX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LRCX - Lam Research Corp
$293.02
-4.70 (-1.58%)
▼
5d:
-3.99%
30d:
-25.11%
90d:
+13.64%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LRCX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LRCX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$398.25
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$247.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LRCX is currently trading at $293.02, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $297.16 to $382.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 35.8) is in line with its historical norms (37.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 40.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $250.50, while resistance sits at $328.13.
Market Sentiment: LRCX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $368.39 (+25.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $250.50, while resistance sits at $328.13.
Market Sentiment: LRCX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $368.39 (+25.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$297.16 -
$382.81
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LRCX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.7% below Wall St target ($368.39)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$297.16 -
$382.81
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$250.50
Resistance Level
$328.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.82
Wall Street Target
$368.39
(+25.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
40.8%
Profit Margin
30.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
35.8 vs 37.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$288.33
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$283.72
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$279.18
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 36→38)
$293.05
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.8, Growth: 43.7%)
$868.62
(+196%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 43.7%)
$502.70
(+72%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 43.7%)
$427.29
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (36x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.25
Bull Case
$428.64
(+46%)
Analyst growth 30.9%, PE expands to 52.4
Base Case
$389.67
(+33%)
Market implied 30.9%, PE stable at 47.6
Bear Case
$202.45
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 35.8 to 37.6
Stabilization Target:
$307.58
(+5.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 5:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:29 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is LRCX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
David Taylor
BUY
2026-03-12
Ava Harter
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-04
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