Lam Research (LRCX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LRCX - Lam Research Corp
$230.10
-0.05 (-0.02%)
▼
5d:
-12.82%
30d:
-25.09%
90d:
-21.09%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 8, 2026 at $320.59 · last confirmed Oct 23, 2026
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: LRCX is down 12.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: LRCX is down 12.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$398.25
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$247.28
6.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LRCX is currently trading at $230.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $265.67 to $328.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 28.1) compared to its historical average (37.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $225.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LRCX scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $364.03 (+58.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LRCX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $225.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: LRCX scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $364.03 (+58.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$265.67 -
$328.51
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LRCX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.2% below Wall St target ($364.03)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$265.67 -
$328.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$225.14
Resistance Level
$314.95
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.13
Wall Street Target
$364.03
(+58.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.8%
Profit Margin
31.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.1 vs 37.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$209.16
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$190.13
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$172.83
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→38)
$230.41
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.1, Growth: 43.7%)
$682.10
(+196%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 43.7%)
$481.60
(+109%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 43.7%)
$409.36
(+78%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.76
Bull Case
$359.55
(+56%)
Analyst growth 42.0%, PE expands to 44.0
Base Case
$326.86
(+42%)
Market implied 42.0%, PE stable at 40.0
Bear Case
$156.50
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.1 to 37.5
Stabilization Target:
$306.77
(+33.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 25, 2026 7:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LRCX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced LRCX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LRCX price and gamma walls.
