Target Price Playground
LRCX
$333.89
🟢
LRCX IV: 56.8% — LOW
(-27.7% vs 30d avg of 78.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $295 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $335 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $34.62 · Δ -0.44
SHORT PUT · $305 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $20.45 · Δ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $295 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,582 (111.6%) on $1,418 risked, vs $-3,889 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $33,389. Options give 9.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $295. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $295 by Dec 18
+$1,582
+111.6% on $1,418 risked
Max Profit
+$1,582
If the stock ≤ $305 at expiry
Max Loss
−$1,418
Net debit
Break-even
$320.82
-3.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-13.15 / -1.95 / 6.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $267 (-20%) | +$900 | +$1,015 | +$1,232 | +$1,583 |
| $284 (-15%) | +$685 | +$771 | +$956 | +$1,583 |
| $295 (-12%) ← target | +$533 | +$591 | +$726 | +$1,583 |
| $301 (-10%) | +$457 | +$499 | +$603 | +$1,583 |
| $317 (-5%) | +$226 | +$217 | +$211 | +$363 |
| $327 (-2%) | +$89 | +$50 | -$24 | -$638 |
| $334 (0%) ← spot | +$1 | -$59 | -$176 | -$1,306 |
| $341 (+2%) | -$86 | -$164 | -$320 | -$1,417 |
| $351 (+5%) | -$211 | -$315 | -$520 | -$1,417 |
| $367 (+10%) | -$405 | -$542 | -$801 | -$1,417 |
| $384 (+15%) | -$578 | -$737 | -$1,013 | -$1,417 |
| $401 (+20%) | -$729 | -$898 | -$1,164 | -$1,417 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.