Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
LRCX
$333.89
🟢
LRCX IV: 56.8% — LOW (-27.7% vs 30d avg of 78.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $350 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

72d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $305 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $20.45 · Δ -0.31
P&L at Expiry Now $334 Target $350 $234 $334 $434
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If LRCX hits $350 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$2,045 (7.2%) on $-2,045 credit (max loss $28,455), vs +$1,611 (4.8%) for 100 shares on $33,389. Options give 1.5× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if LRCX hits $350 by Dec 18
+$2,045
+7.2% on $28,455 max loss
Max Profit
+$2,045
If the stock ≥ $305 at expiry
Max Loss
−$28,455
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$284.55
-14.78% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
86%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
30.7 / 20.34 / -52.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

LRCX Price Today Oct 31 Nov 24 Dec 18 (exp)
$267 (-20%) -$3,069 -$2,650 -$2,150 -$1,744
$284 (-15%) -$2,094 -$1,600 -$962 -$74
$301 (-10%) -$1,263 -$726 -$7 +$1,595
$317 (-5%) -$569 -$18 +$711 +$2,045
$327 (-2%) -$214 +$332 +$1,038 +$2,045
$334 (0%) ← spot +$0 +$537 +$1,218 +$2,045
$341 (+2%) +$197 +$721 +$1,370 +$2,045
$350 (+5%) ← target +$446 +$949 +$1,545 +$2,045
$367 (+10%) +$828 +$1,279 +$1,766 +$2,045
$384 (+15%) +$1,117 +$1,511 +$1,892 +$2,045
$401 (+20%) +$1,342 +$1,678 +$1,964 +$2,045
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.