Target Price Playground
LRCX
$333.89
🟢
LRCX IV: 56.8% — LOW
(-27.7% vs 30d avg of 78.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $360 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $333.89 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $360 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $23.7 · Δ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $360 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$4,981 (16.1%) on $31,019 risked, vs +$2,611 (7.8%) for 100 shares on $33,389. Options give 2.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $360. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $360 by Dec 18
+$4,981
+16.1% on $31,019 risked
Max Profit
+$4,981
If the stock ≥ $360 at expiry
Max Loss
−$31,019
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$310.19
-7.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
55.97 / 24.2 / -61.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $267 (-20%) | -$4,897 | -$4,593 | -$4,360 | -$4,308 |
| $284 (-15%) | -$3,567 | -$3,156 | -$2,778 | -$2,638 |
| $301 (-10%) | -$2,350 | -$1,834 | -$1,286 | -$969 |
| $317 (-5%) | -$1,253 | -$643 | +$71 | +$701 |
| $327 (-2%) | -$656 | +$2 | +$804 | +$1,702 |
| $334 (0%) ← spot | -$282 | +$402 | +$1,255 | +$2,370 |
| $341 (+2%) | +$73 | +$779 | +$1,674 | +$3,038 |
| $351 (+5%) | +$567 | +$1,300 | +$2,241 | +$4,039 |
| $360 (+8%) ← target | +$994 | +$1,742 | +$2,708 | +$4,981 |
| $367 (+10%) | +$1,299 | +$2,053 | +$3,025 | +$4,981 |
| $384 (+15%) | +$1,921 | +$2,672 | +$3,619 | +$4,981 |
| $401 (+20%) | +$2,444 | +$3,172 | +$4,050 | +$4,981 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.