Target Price Playground
LRCX
$333.89
๐ข
LRCX IV: 56.8% โ LOW
(-27.7% vs 30d avg of 78.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $375 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
72d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $333.89 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $375 by Dec 18: the long stock returns +$4,111 (12.3%) on $33,389 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Dec 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $375 by Dec 18
+$4,111
+12.3% on $33,389 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$33,389
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$333.89
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Nov 6 | Dec 6 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $267 (-20%) | -$6,678 | -$6,678 | -$6,678 |
| $284 (-15%) | -$5,008 | -$5,008 | -$5,008 |
| $301 (-10%) | -$3,339 | -$3,339 | -$3,339 |
| $317 (-5%) | -$1,669 | -$1,669 | -$1,669 |
| $327 (-2%) | -$668 | -$668 | -$668 |
| $334 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $341 (+2%) | +$668 | +$668 | +$668 |
| $351 (+5%) | +$1,669 | +$1,669 | +$1,669 |
| $367 (+10%) | +$3,339 | +$3,339 | +$3,339 |
| $375 (+12%) โ target | +$4,111 | +$4,111 | +$4,111 |
| $384 (+15%) | +$5,008 | +$5,008 | +$5,008 |
| $401 (+20%) | +$6,678 | +$6,678 | +$6,678 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.