Target Price Playground
LRCX
$333.89
🟢
LRCX IV: 56.8% — LOW
(-27.7% vs 30d avg of 78.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $365 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $333.89 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $315 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $24.71 · Δ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $365 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$640 (1.8%) on $35,860 risked, vs +$3,111 (9.3%) for 100 shares on $33,389. Options give 0.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $365. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $365 by Dec 18
+$640
+1.8% on $35,860 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$4,360
Put floors you at $315
Break-even
$358.60
+7.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
64.96 / -21.31 / 54.95
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $267 (-20%) | -$3,298 | -$3,682 | -$4,111 | -$4,360 |
| $284 (-15%) | -$2,680 | -$3,152 | -$3,740 | -$4,360 |
| $301 (-10%) | -$1,921 | -$2,454 | -$3,158 | -$4,360 |
| $317 (-5%) | -$1,024 | -$1,589 | -$2,343 | -$4,140 |
| $327 (-2%) | -$424 | -$993 | -$1,747 | -$3,139 |
| $334 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$566 | -$1,308 | -$2,471 |
| $341 (+2%) | +$443 | -$117 | -$837 | -$1,803 |
| $351 (+5%) | +$1,140 | +$596 | -$81 | -$802 |
| $365 (+9%) ← target | +$2,206 | +$1,696 | +$1,102 | +$640 |
| $384 (+15%) | +$3,706 | +$3,256 | +$2,783 | +$2,537 |
| $401 (+20%) | +$5,105 | +$4,712 | +$4,343 | +$4,207 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.