Target Price Playground
LRCX
$393.00
๐ข
LRCX IV: 71.5% โ LOW
(-24.8% vs 30d avg of 95.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $425 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $393.0 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $425 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $37.18 ยท ฮ 0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $425 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$6,918 (19.4%) on $35,582 risked, vs +$3,200 (8.1%) for 100 shares on $39,300. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $425. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $425 by Aug 21
+$6,918
+19.4% on $35,582 risked
Max Profit
+$6,918
If the stock โฅ $425 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$35,582
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$355.82
-9.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
52.85 / 39.75 / -65.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $314 (-20%) | -$5,177 | -$4,699 | -$4,282 | -$4,142 |
| $334 (-15%) | -$3,693 | -$3,088 | -$2,482 | -$2,177 |
| $354 (-10%) | -$2,334 | -$1,609 | -$804 | -$212 |
| $373 (-5%) | -$1,103 | -$274 | +$716 | +$1,753 |
| $385 (-2%) | -$426 | +$454 | +$1,539 | +$2,932 |
| $393 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$909 | +$2,048 | +$3,718 |
| $401 (+2%) | +$405 | +$1,340 | +$2,525 | +$4,504 |
| $413 (+5%) | +$976 | +$1,941 | +$3,178 | +$5,683 |
| $425 (+8%) โ target | +$1,528 | +$2,514 | +$3,783 | +$6,918 |
| $432 (+10%) | +$1,833 | +$2,826 | +$4,104 | +$6,918 |
| $452 (+15%) | +$2,578 | +$3,575 | +$4,838 | +$6,918 |
| $472 (+20%) | +$3,221 | +$4,200 | +$5,403 | +$6,918 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.