Target Price Playground
LRCX
$310.53
๐ข
LRCX IV: 64.6% โ LOW
(-38.9% vs 30d avg of 105.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $335 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $310.53 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $335 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.58 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If LRCX hits $335 by Oct 16: the covered call returns +$4,705 (16.3%) on $28,795 risked, vs +$2,447 (7.9%) for 100 shares on $31,053. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if LRCX is at $335. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if LRCX hits $335 by Oct 16
+$4,705
+16.3% on $28,795 risked
Max Profit
+$4,705
If the stock โฅ $335 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$28,795
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$287.95
-7.27% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.75 / 29.2 / -48.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| LRCX Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $248 (-20%) | -$4,403 | -$4,169 | -$3,988 | -$3,953 |
| $264 (-15%) | -$3,136 | -$2,810 | -$2,503 | -$2,400 |
| $279 (-10%) | -$1,973 | -$1,554 | -$1,095 | -$847 |
| $295 (-5%) | -$927 | -$424 | +$190 | +$705 |
| $304 (-2%) | -$356 | +$189 | +$886 | +$1,637 |
| $311 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$569 | +$1,313 | +$2,258 |
| $317 (+2%) | +$336 | +$926 | +$1,710 | +$2,879 |
| $326 (+5%) | +$806 | +$1,418 | +$2,246 | +$3,811 |
| $335 (+8%) โ target | +$1,217 | +$1,843 | +$2,694 | +$4,705 |
| $342 (+10%) | +$1,496 | +$2,127 | +$2,982 | +$4,705 |
| $357 (+15%) | +$2,078 | +$2,704 | +$3,534 | +$4,705 |
| $373 (+20%) | +$2,563 | +$3,165 | +$3,927 | +$4,705 |
Uses LRCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.