Target Price Playground
MAR
$361.28
🟢
MAR IV: 24.9% — LOW
(-63.4% vs 30d avg of 67.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $320 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $360 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $14.7 · Δ -0.46
SHORT PUT · $330 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $6.7 · Δ -0.2
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $320 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$2,200 (275.0%) on $800 risked, vs $-4,128 (-11.4%) for 100 shares on $36,128. Options give 24.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $320. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $320 by Dec 18
+$2,200
+275.0% on $800 risked
Max Profit
+$2,200
If the stock ≤ $330 at expiry
Max Loss
−$800
Net debit
Break-even
$352.00
-2.57% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
36%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-25.88 / -1.98 / 12.08
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $289 (-20%) | +$1,926 | +$2,044 | +$2,161 | +$2,200 |
| $307 (-15%) | +$1,630 | +$1,779 | +$1,999 | +$2,200 |
| $320 (-11%) ← target | +$1,339 | +$1,468 | +$1,700 | +$2,200 |
| $325 (-10%) | +$1,209 | +$1,320 | +$1,529 | +$2,200 |
| $343 (-5%) | +$722 | +$738 | +$766 | +$878 |
| $354 (-2%) | +$433 | +$388 | +$288 | -$205 |
| $361 (0%) ← spot | +$253 | +$173 | +$7 | -$800 |
| $369 (+2%) | +$86 | -$21 | -$228 | -$800 |
| $379 (+5%) | -$134 | -$264 | -$486 | -$800 |
| $397 (+10%) | -$412 | -$541 | -$708 | -$800 |
| $415 (+15%) | -$591 | -$689 | -$779 | -$800 |
| $434 (+20%) | -$696 | -$758 | -$796 | -$800 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.