Target Price Playground
MAR
$361.28
🟢
MAR IV: 24.9% — LOW
(-63.4% vs 30d avg of 67.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $345 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $360 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $16.85 · Δ -0.46
SHORT PUT · $345 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.46 · Δ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $345 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,037 (140.3%) on $739 risked, vs $-1,628 (-4.5%) for 100 shares on $36,128. Options give 31.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $345. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $345 by Dec 18
+$1,037
+140.3% on $739 risked
Max Profit
+$1,035
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$739
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$363.46
+0.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-15.0 / 1.67 / 17.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $289 (-20%) | +$633 | +$654 | +$655 | +$639 |
| $307 (-15%) | +$596 | +$649 | +$693 | +$659 |
| $325 (-10%) | +$503 | +$581 | +$696 | +$766 |
| $345 (-5%) ← target | +$325 | +$397 | +$526 | +$1,174 |
| $354 (-2%) | +$225 | +$279 | +$375 | +$616 |
| $361 (0%) ← spot | +$139 | +$175 | +$233 | +$254 |
| $369 (+2%) | +$51 | +$67 | +$82 | -$34 |
| $379 (+5%) | -$80 | -$94 | -$137 | -$343 |
| $397 (+10%) | -$280 | -$330 | -$426 | -$611 |
| $415 (+15%) | -$440 | -$503 | -$598 | -$705 |
| $434 (+20%) | -$556 | -$615 | -$683 | -$732 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.