Target Price Playground
MAR
$361.28
🟢
MAR IV: 24.9% — LOW
(-63.4% vs 30d avg of 67.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $405 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $360 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $19.0 · Δ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $405 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$2,600 (136.8%) on $1,900 risked, vs +$4,372 (12.1%) for 100 shares on $36,128. Options give 11.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $405. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $405 by Dec 18
+$2,600
+136.8% on $1,900 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$1,900
Premium paid
Break-even
$379.00
+4.9% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
54.38 / -14.34 / 63.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $289 (-20%) | -$1,826 | -$1,879 | -$1,899 | -$1,900 |
| $307 (-15%) | -$1,672 | -$1,803 | -$1,887 | -$1,900 |
| $325 (-10%) | -$1,341 | -$1,579 | -$1,805 | -$1,900 |
| $343 (-5%) | -$759 | -$1,094 | -$1,490 | -$1,900 |
| $354 (-2%) | -$271 | -$640 | -$1,104 | -$1,900 |
| $361 (0%) ← spot | +$114 | -$266 | -$746 | -$1,772 |
| $369 (+2%) | +$544 | +$164 | -$310 | -$1,049 |
| $379 (+5%) | +$1,269 | +$906 | +$477 | +$34 |
| $397 (+10%) | +$2,660 | +$2,354 | +$2,043 | +$1,841 |
| $405 (+12%) ← target | +$3,299 | +$3,022 | +$2,759 | +$2,600 |
| $415 (+15%) | +$4,222 | +$3,983 | +$3,775 | +$3,647 |
| $434 (+20%) | +$5,896 | +$5,712 | +$5,564 | +$5,454 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.