Target Price Playground
MAR
$361.28
๐ข
MAR IV: 24.9% โ LOW
(-63.4% vs 30d avg of 67.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $405 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
72d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $361.28 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $405 by Dec 18: the long stock returns +$4,372 (12.1%) on $36,128 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Dec 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $405 by Dec 18
+$4,372
+12.1% on $36,128 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$36,128
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$361.28
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
33%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Nov 6 | Dec 6 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $289 (-20%) | -$7,226 | -$7,226 | -$7,226 |
| $307 (-15%) | -$5,419 | -$5,419 | -$5,419 |
| $325 (-10%) | -$3,613 | -$3,613 | -$3,613 |
| $343 (-5%) | -$1,806 | -$1,806 | -$1,806 |
| $354 (-2%) | -$723 | -$723 | -$723 |
| $361 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $369 (+2%) | +$723 | +$723 | +$723 |
| $379 (+5%) | +$1,806 | +$1,806 | +$1,806 |
| $397 (+10%) | +$3,613 | +$3,613 | +$3,613 |
| $405 (+12%) โ target | +$4,372 | +$4,372 | +$4,372 |
| $415 (+15%) | +$5,419 | +$5,419 | +$5,419 |
| $434 (+20%) | +$7,226 | +$7,226 | +$7,226 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.