Target Price Playground
MAR
$361.28
🟢
MAR IV: 24.9% — LOW
(-63.4% vs 30d avg of 67.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $395 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $361.28 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $345 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.46 · Δ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MAR hits $395 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$2,426 (6.5%) on $37,074 risked, vs +$3,372 (9.3%) for 100 shares on $36,128. Options give 0.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MAR is at $395. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MAR hits $395 by Dec 18
+$2,426
+6.5% on $37,074 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$2,574
Put floors you at $345
Break-even
$370.74
+2.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
69.28 / -9.49 / 56.38
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MAR Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $289 (-20%) | -$2,719 | -$2,717 | -$2,670 | -$2,574 |
| $307 (-15%) | -$2,447 | -$2,546 | -$2,619 | -$2,574 |
| $325 (-10%) | -$1,930 | -$2,132 | -$2,379 | -$2,574 |
| $343 (-5%) | -$1,114 | -$1,374 | -$1,729 | -$2,574 |
| $354 (-2%) | -$480 | -$742 | -$1,092 | -$1,669 |
| $361 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | -$252 | -$573 | -$946 |
| $369 (+2%) | +$521 | +$287 | +$8 | -$223 |
| $379 (+5%) | +$1,367 | +$1,170 | +$964 | +$860 |
| $395 (+9%) ← target | +$2,705 | +$2,566 | +$2,453 | +$2,426 |
| $415 (+15%) | +$4,591 | +$4,517 | +$4,477 | +$4,473 |
| $434 (+20%) | +$6,332 | +$6,294 | +$6,280 | +$6,280 |
Uses MAR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.