Target Price Playground
MNST
$47.34
🟢
MNST IV: 30.1% — LOW
(-24.9% vs 30d avg of 40.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $42 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $47 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.78 · Δ -0.43
SHORT PUT · $44 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.7 · Δ -0.22
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MNST hits $42 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$192 (177.8%) on $108 risked, vs $-534 (-11.3%) for 100 shares on $4,734. Options give 15.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MNST is at $42. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MNST hits $42 by Dec 18
+$192
+177.8% on $108 risked
Max Profit
+$192
If the stock ≤ $44 at expiry
Max Loss
−$108
Net debit
Break-even
$45.92
-3.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-21.04 / -0.39 / 1.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MNST Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $38 (-20%) | +$175 | +$184 | +$191 | +$192 |
| $40 (-15%) | +$149 | +$163 | +$182 | +$192 |
| $42 (-11%) ← target | +$119 | +$133 | +$157 | +$192 |
| $43 (-10%) | +$107 | +$119 | +$143 | +$192 |
| $45 (-5%) | +$54 | +$56 | +$62 | +$95 |
| $46 (-2%) | +$21 | +$17 | +$7 | -$47 |
| $47 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | -$8 | -$25 | -$108 |
| $48 (+2%) | -$19 | -$30 | -$52 | -$108 |
| $50 (+5%) | -$44 | -$58 | -$80 | -$108 |
| $52 (+10%) | -$74 | -$87 | -$102 | -$108 |
| $54 (+15%) | -$92 | -$100 | -$107 | -$108 |
| $57 (+20%) | -$101 | -$106 | -$108 | -$108 |
Uses MNST's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.