Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
MNST
$47.34
🟢
MNST IV: 30.1% — LOW (-24.9% vs 30d avg of 40.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $50 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $44 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.7 · Δ -0.22
P&L at Expiry Now $47 Target $50 $33 $47 $62
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If MNST hits $50 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$70 (1.6%) on $-70 credit (max loss $4,330), vs +$266 (5.6%) for 100 shares on $4,734. Options give 0.3× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MNST is at $50. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if MNST hits $50 by Dec 18
+$70
+1.6% on $4,330 max loss
Max Profit
+$70
If the stock ≥ $44 at expiry
Max Loss
−$4,330
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$43.30
-8.54% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
22.06 / 1.48 / -5.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

MNST Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$38 (-20%) -$537 -$534 -$535 -$543
$40 (-15%) -$340 -$324 -$308 -$306
$43 (-10%) -$182 -$154 -$117 -$69
$45 (-5%) -$70 -$39 +$2 +$70
$46 (-2%) -$24 +$5 +$39 +$70
$47 (0%) ← spot -$0 +$25 +$53 +$70
$48 (+2%) +$18 +$40 +$61 +$70
$50 (+6%) ← target +$42 +$56 +$68 +$70
$52 (+10%) +$57 +$65 +$70 +$70
$54 (+15%) +$65 +$69 +$70 +$70
$57 (+20%) +$68 +$70 +$70 +$70
Uses MNST's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.