Target Price Playground
MNST
$47.34
🟢
MNST IV: 29.8% — LOW
(-25.7% vs 30d avg of 40.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $45 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $47 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $2.23 · Δ -0.43
SHORT PUT · $45 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.34 · Δ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MNST hits $45 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$174 (194.8%) on $89 risked, vs $-234 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $4,734. Options give 39.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MNST is at $45. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MNST hits $45 by Dec 18
+$174
+194.8% on $89 risked
Max Profit
+$169
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$89
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$48.55
+2.56% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-13.56 / 0.82 / 2.69
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MNST Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $38 (-20%) | +$98 | +$99 | +$98 | +$95 |
| $40 (-15%) | +$97 | +$103 | +$106 | +$100 |
| $43 (-10%) | +$87 | +$98 | +$112 | +$120 |
| $45 (-5%) ← target | +$66 | +$76 | +$94 | +$175 |
| $46 (-2%) | +$49 | +$56 | +$69 | +$91 |
| $47 (0%) ← spot | +$36 | +$40 | +$47 | +$46 |
| $48 (+2%) | +$22 | +$24 | +$25 | +$9 |
| $50 (+5%) | +$2 | -$0 | -$7 | -$31 |
| $52 (+10%) | -$28 | -$35 | -$48 | -$68 |
| $54 (+15%) | -$51 | -$60 | -$71 | -$83 |
| $57 (+20%) | -$67 | -$75 | -$82 | -$87 |
Uses MNST's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.