Target Price Playground
MNST
$47.34
🟢
MNST IV: 29.8% — LOW
(-25.7% vs 30d avg of 40.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $42 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $47 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.78 · Δ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MNST hits $42 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$322 (180.8%) on $178 risked, vs $-534 (-11.3%) for 100 shares on $4,734. Options give 16.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MNST is at $42. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MNST hits $42 by Dec 18
+$322
+180.8% on $178 risked
Max Profit
+$4,522
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$178
Premium paid
Break-even
$45.22
-4.48% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-43.09 / -1.87 / 6.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MNST Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $38 (-20%) | +$712 | +$718 | +$726 | +$735 |
| $40 (-15%) | +$490 | +$487 | +$489 | +$498 |
| $42 (-11%) ← target | +$338 | +$326 | +$318 | +$322 |
| $43 (-10%) | +$289 | +$273 | +$260 | +$261 |
| $45 (-5%) | +$124 | +$96 | +$61 | +$25 |
| $46 (-2%) | +$44 | +$12 | -$32 | -$117 |
| $47 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$33 | -$78 | -$178 |
| $48 (+2%) | -$38 | -$70 | -$114 | -$178 |
| $50 (+5%) | -$82 | -$112 | -$148 | -$178 |
| $52 (+10%) | -$131 | -$152 | -$171 | -$178 |
| $54 (+15%) | -$157 | -$169 | -$177 | -$178 |
| $57 (+20%) | -$169 | -$175 | -$178 | -$178 |
Uses MNST's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.