Target Price Playground
MNST
$47.34
🟢
MNST IV: 29.8% — LOW
(-25.7% vs 30d avg of 40.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $52 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $47.34 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $45 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.34 · Δ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MNST hits $52 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$332 (6.8%) on $4,868 risked, vs +$466 (9.8%) for 100 shares on $4,734. Options give 0.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MNST is at $52. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MNST hits $52 by Dec 18
+$332
+6.8% on $4,868 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$368
Put floors you at $45
Break-even
$48.68
+2.83% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
71.04 / -2.24 / 5.78
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MNST Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $38 (-20%) | -$381 | -$381 | -$377 | -$368 |
| $40 (-15%) | -$352 | -$364 | -$372 | -$368 |
| $43 (-10%) | -$290 | -$315 | -$345 | -$368 |
| $45 (-5%) | -$185 | -$217 | -$259 | -$368 |
| $46 (-2%) | -$100 | -$131 | -$172 | -$229 |
| $47 (0%) ← spot | -$35 | -$64 | -$100 | -$134 |
| $48 (+2%) | +$35 | +$9 | -$20 | -$39 |
| $50 (+5%) | +$150 | +$130 | +$110 | +$103 |
| $52 (+10%) ← target | +$353 | +$341 | +$333 | +$332 |
| $54 (+15%) | +$584 | +$578 | +$576 | +$576 |
| $57 (+20%) | +$816 | +$814 | +$813 | +$813 |
Uses MNST's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.