Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
MRVL
$287.01
🟢
MRVL IV: 61.6% — LOW (-18.5% vs 30d avg of 75.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $300 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

72d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $265 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $19.84 · Δ -0.32
P&L at Expiry Now $287 Target $300 $201 $287 $373
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If MRVL hits $300 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$1,984 (8.1%) on $-1,984 credit (max loss $24,516), vs +$1,299 (4.5%) for 100 shares on $28,701. Options give 1.8× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $300. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if MRVL hits $300 by Dec 18
+$1,984
+8.1% on $24,516 max loss
Max Profit
+$1,984
If the stock ≥ $265 at expiry
Max Loss
−$24,516
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$245.16
-14.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
87%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
32.38 / 18.6 / -45.81
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

MRVL Price Today Oct 31 Nov 24 Dec 18 (exp)
$230 (-20%) -$2,709 -$2,336 -$1,896 -$1,555
$244 (-15%) -$1,859 -$1,420 -$856 -$120
$258 (-10%) -$1,130 -$648 -$6 +$1,315
$273 (-5%) -$513 -$14 +$650 +$1,984
$281 (-2%) -$194 +$304 +$955 +$1,984
$287 (0%) ← spot -$0 +$492 +$1,126 +$1,984
$293 (+2%) +$178 +$663 +$1,273 +$1,984
$300 (+5%) ← target +$384 +$854 +$1,428 +$1,984
$316 (+10%) +$761 +$1,189 +$1,668 +$1,984
$330 (+15%) +$1,033 +$1,415 +$1,802 +$1,984
$344 (+20%) +$1,249 +$1,581 +$1,883 +$1,984
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.