Target Price Playground
MRVL
$328.40
๐ข
MRVL IV: 87.1% โ LOW
(-27.7% vs 30d avg of 120.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $355 by Aug 21
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
64d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $328.4 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $355 ยท Aug '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $40.37 ยท ฮ 0.5
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $355 by Aug 21: the covered call returns +$6,698 (23.3%) on $28,803 risked, vs +$2,660 (8.1%) for 100 shares on $32,840. Options give 2.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Aug 21, 2026 (64 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $355. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $355 by Aug 21
+$6,698
+23.3% on $28,803 risked
Max Profit
+$6,698
If the stock โฅ $355 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$28,803
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$288.03
-12.29% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 64d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
49.73 / 40.54 / -54.86
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Jul 9 | Jul 30 | Aug 21 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $263 (-20%) | -$3,986 | -$3,401 | -$2,818 | -$2,531 |
| $279 (-15%) | -$2,852 | -$2,161 | -$1,404 | -$889 |
| $296 (-10%) | -$1,810 | -$1,023 | -$100 | +$753 |
| $312 (-5%) | -$861 | +$8 | +$1,076 | +$2,395 |
| $322 (-2%) | -$334 | +$574 | +$1,716 | +$3,380 |
| $328 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$931 | +$2,114 | +$4,037 |
| $335 (+2%) | +$319 | +$1,271 | +$2,490 | +$4,694 |
| $345 (+5%) | +$774 | +$1,751 | +$3,010 | +$5,679 |
| $355 (+8%) โ target | +$1,213 | +$2,208 | +$3,495 | +$6,697 |
| $361 (+10%) | +$1,467 | +$2,470 | +$3,767 | +$6,697 |
| $378 (+15%) | +$2,085 | +$3,098 | +$4,393 | +$6,697 |
| $394 (+20%) | +$2,633 | +$3,640 | +$4,902 | +$6,697 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.