Target Price Playground
MRVL
$251.01
๐ข
MRVL IV: 75.4% โ LOW
(-26.8% vs 30d avg of 103.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $251.01 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $270 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.18 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $270 by Oct 16: the covered call returns +$4,017 (17.5%) on $22,983 risked, vs +$1,899 (7.6%) for 100 shares on $25,101. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $270 by Oct 16
+$4,017
+17.5% on $22,983 risked
Max Profit
+$4,017
If the stock โฅ $270 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$22,983
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$229.83
-8.44% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.9 / 27.93 / -39.79
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $201 (-20%) | -$3,496 | -$3,221 | -$2,974 | -$2,902 |
| $213 (-15%) | -$2,535 | -$2,183 | -$1,815 | -$1,647 |
| $226 (-10%) | -$1,656 | -$1,229 | -$732 | -$392 |
| $238 (-5%) | -$862 | -$372 | +$247 | +$863 |
| $246 (-2%) | -$427 | +$95 | +$776 | +$1,616 |
| $251 (0%) โ spot | -$154 | +$385 | +$1,101 | +$2,118 |
| $256 (+2%) | +$105 | +$660 | +$1,405 | +$2,620 |
| $264 (+5%) | +$469 | +$1,042 | +$1,819 | +$3,373 |
| $270 (+8%) โ target | +$758 | +$1,340 | +$2,133 | +$4,017 |
| $276 (+10%) | +$1,013 | +$1,600 | +$2,398 | +$4,017 |
| $289 (+15%) | +$1,482 | +$2,068 | +$2,850 | +$4,017 |
| $301 (+20%) | +$1,883 | +$2,454 | +$3,190 | +$4,017 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.