Target Price Playground
MU
$1,045.56
🟢
MU IV: 48.7% — LOW
(-36.2% vs 30d avg of 76.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $920 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $1050 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $81.86 · Δ -0.46
SHORT PUT · $960 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $41.5 · Δ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $920 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$4,964 (123.0%) on $4,036 risked, vs $-12,556 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $104,556. Options give 10.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $920. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $920 by Dec 18
+$4,964
+123.0% on $4,036 risked
Max Profit
+$4,964
If the stock ≤ $960 at expiry
Max Loss
−$4,036
Net debit
Break-even
$1009.64
-3.44% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-17.15 / -6.61 / 32.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $836 (-20%) | +$3,091 | +$3,468 | +$4,128 | +$4,964 |
| $889 (-15%) | +$2,403 | +$2,703 | +$3,315 | +$4,964 |
| $920 (-12%) ← target | +$1,960 | +$2,184 | +$2,677 | +$4,964 |
| $941 (-10%) | +$1,655 | +$1,819 | +$2,198 | +$4,964 |
| $993 (-5%) | +$887 | +$884 | +$908 | +$1,636 |
| $1025 (-2%) | +$433 | +$327 | +$125 | -$1,501 |
| $1046 (0%) ← spot | +$137 | -$35 | -$378 | -$3,592 |
| $1066 (+2%) | -$151 | -$384 | -$855 | -$4,036 |
| $1098 (+5%) | -$565 | -$880 | -$1,508 | -$4,036 |
| $1150 (+10%) | -$1,199 | -$1,618 | -$2,398 | -$4,036 |
| $1202 (+15%) | -$1,754 | -$2,231 | -$3,036 | -$4,036 |
| $1255 (+20%) | -$2,226 | -$2,721 | -$3,459 | -$4,036 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.