Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
MU
$1,045.56
🟢
MU IV: 48.7% — LOW (-36.2% vs 30d avg of 76.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $1100 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

72d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $960 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $41.5 · Δ -0.29
P&L at Expiry Now $1046 Target $1100 $732 $1046 $1359
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If MU hits $1100 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$4,150 (4.5%) on $-4,150 credit (max loss $91,850), vs +$5,444 (5.2%) for 100 shares on $104,556. Options give 0.9× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1100. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if MU hits $1100 by Dec 18
+$4,150
+4.5% on $91,850 max loss
Max Profit
+$4,150
If the stock ≥ $960 at expiry
Max Loss
−$91,850
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$918.50
-12.15% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
28.94 / 46.38 / -151.68
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

MU Price Today Oct 31 Nov 24 Dec 18 (exp)
$836 (-20%) -$11,383 -$10,285 -$9,026 -$8,205
$889 (-15%) -$8,182 -$6,833 -$5,109 -$2,977
$941 (-10%) -$5,480 -$3,978 -$1,972 +$2,250
$993 (-5%) -$3,254 -$1,707 +$346 +$4,150
$1025 (-2%) -$2,130 -$603 +$1,374 +$4,150
$1046 (0%) ← spot -$1,462 +$34 +$1,926 +$4,150
$1066 (+2%) -$855 +$600 +$2,385 +$4,150
$1100 (+5%) ← target +$2 +$1,370 +$2,954 +$4,150
$1150 (+10%) +$1,045 +$2,252 +$3,509 +$4,150
$1202 (+15%) +$1,878 +$2,899 +$3,831 +$4,150
$1255 (+20%) +$2,504 +$3,340 +$3,999 +$4,150
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.