Target Price Playground
MU
$1,045.56
🟢
MU IV: 48.7% — LOW
(-36.2% vs 30d avg of 76.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1130 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1045.56 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $1130 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $58.08 · Δ 0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1130 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$14,252 (14.4%) on $98,748 risked, vs +$8,444 (8.1%) for 100 shares on $104,556. Options give 1.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1130 by Dec 18
+$14,252
+14.4% on $98,748 risked
Max Profit
+$14,252
If the stock ≥ $1130 at expiry
Max Loss
−$98,748
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$987.48
-5.55% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
59.16 / 64.83 / -168.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $836 (-20%) | -$16,384 | -$15,667 | -$15,182 | -$15,103 |
| $889 (-15%) | -$12,039 | -$11,004 | -$10,129 | -$9,875 |
| $941 (-10%) | -$8,051 | -$6,685 | -$5,312 | -$4,648 |
| $993 (-5%) | -$4,461 | -$2,789 | -$889 | +$580 |
| $1025 (-2%) | -$2,509 | -$681 | +$1,509 | +$3,717 |
| $1046 (0%) ← spot | -$1,293 | +$624 | +$2,982 | +$5,808 |
| $1066 (+2%) | -$145 | +$1,848 | +$4,348 | +$7,899 |
| $1098 (+5%) | +$1,451 | +$3,530 | +$6,189 | +$11,036 |
| $1130 (+8%) ← target | +$2,933 | +$5,066 | +$7,813 | +$14,252 |
| $1150 (+10%) | +$3,784 | +$5,934 | +$8,695 | +$14,252 |
| $1202 (+15%) | +$5,736 | +$7,870 | +$10,542 | +$14,252 |
| $1255 (+20%) | +$7,344 | +$9,390 | +$11,828 | +$14,252 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.