Target Price Playground
MU
$1,045.56
🟢
MU IV: 48.7% — LOW
(-36.2% vs 30d avg of 76.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $990 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $1050 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $98.05 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $990 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $51.0 · Δ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $990 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$3,797 (80.7%) on $4,705 risked, vs $-5,556 (-5.3%) for 100 shares on $104,556. Options give 15.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $990. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $990 by Dec 18
+$3,797
+80.7% on $4,705 risked
Max Profit
+$3,754
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$4,588
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$1060.62
+1.44% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
83%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-10.44 / 3.2 / 38.69
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $836 (-20%) | +$983 | +$1,253 | +$1,561 | +$1,358 |
| $889 (-15%) | +$810 | +$1,146 | +$1,662 | +$1,959 |
| $941 (-10%) | +$549 | +$906 | +$1,545 | +$3,047 |
| $990 (-5%) ← target | +$231 | +$561 | +$1,188 | +$4,633 |
| $1025 (-2%) | -$28 | +$257 | +$799 | +$2,657 |
| $1046 (0%) ← spot | -$195 | +$54 | +$520 | +$1,614 |
| $1066 (+2%) | -$368 | -$160 | +$215 | +$682 |
| $1098 (+5%) | -$638 | -$496 | -$275 | -$519 |
| $1150 (+10%) | -$1,098 | -$1,077 | -$1,120 | -$2,046 |
| $1202 (+15%) | -$1,555 | -$1,650 | -$1,921 | -$3,081 |
| $1255 (+20%) | -$1,993 | -$2,187 | -$2,619 | -$3,749 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.