Target Price Playground
MU
$1,045.56
🟢
MU IV: 48.7% — LOW
(-36.2% vs 30d avg of 76.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1170 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $1050 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $89.22 · Δ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1170 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$3,078 (34.5%) on $8,922 risked, vs +$12,444 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $104,556. Options give 2.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1170 by Dec 18
+$3,078
+34.5% on $8,922 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$8,922
Premium paid
Break-even
$1139.22
+8.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
54.61 / -66.4 / 183.56
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $836 (-20%) | -$6,689 | -$7,718 | -$8,626 | -$8,922 |
| $889 (-15%) | -$5,350 | -$6,708 | -$8,129 | -$8,922 |
| $941 (-10%) | -$3,573 | -$5,219 | -$7,155 | -$8,922 |
| $993 (-5%) | -$1,339 | -$3,198 | -$5,536 | -$8,922 |
| $1025 (-2%) | +$220 | -$1,722 | -$4,210 | -$8,922 |
| $1046 (0%) ← spot | +$1,347 | -$629 | -$3,174 | -$8,922 |
| $1066 (+2%) | +$2,543 | +$547 | -$2,019 | -$7,275 |
| $1098 (+5%) | +$4,460 | +$2,463 | -$73 | -$4,138 |
| $1150 (+10%) | +$7,960 | +$6,026 | +$3,679 | +$1,090 |
| $1170 (+12%) ← target | +$9,383 | +$7,491 | +$5,249 | +$3,078 |
| $1202 (+15%) | +$11,799 | +$9,993 | +$7,945 | +$6,317 |
| $1255 (+20%) | +$15,929 | +$14,290 | +$12,584 | +$11,545 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.