Target Price Playground
MU
$1,045.56
🟢
MU IV: 48.7% — LOW
(-36.2% vs 30d avg of 76.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $920 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $1050 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $81.86 · Δ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $920 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$4,814 (58.8%) on $8,186 risked, vs $-12,556 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $104,556. Options give 4.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $920. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $920 by Dec 18
+$4,814
+58.8% on $8,186 risked
Max Profit
+$96,814
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$8,186
Premium paid
Break-even
$968.14
-7.4% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-46.09 / -52.98 / 183.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $836 (-20%) | +$14,474 | +$13,753 | +$13,155 | +$13,169 |
| $889 (-15%) | +$10,585 | +$9,536 | +$8,424 | +$7,941 |
| $920 (-12%) ← target | +$8,466 | +$7,237 | +$5,810 | +$4,814 |
| $941 (-10%) | +$7,135 | +$5,797 | +$4,170 | +$2,714 |
| $993 (-5%) | +$4,141 | +$2,591 | +$562 | -$2,514 |
| $1025 (-2%) | +$2,563 | +$930 | -$1,249 | -$5,651 |
| $1046 (0%) ← spot | +$1,599 | -$69 | -$2,304 | -$7,742 |
| $1066 (+2%) | +$704 | -$984 | -$3,240 | -$8,186 |
| $1098 (+5%) | -$516 | -$2,205 | -$4,431 | -$8,186 |
| $1150 (+10%) | -$2,244 | -$3,869 | -$5,907 | -$8,186 |
| $1202 (+15%) | -$3,632 | -$5,130 | -$6,868 | -$8,186 |
| $1255 (+20%) | -$4,730 | -$6,061 | -$7,457 | -$8,186 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.