Target Price Playground
MU
$1,045.56
๐ข
MU IV: 48.7% โ LOW
(-36.2% vs 30d avg of 76.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1170 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
72d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1045.56 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1170 by Dec 18: the long stock returns +$12,444 (11.9%) on $104,556 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Dec 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1170 by Dec 18
+$12,444
+11.9% on $104,556 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$104,556
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$1045.56
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Nov 6 | Dec 6 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $836 (-20%) | -$20,911 | -$20,911 | -$20,911 |
| $889 (-15%) | -$15,683 | -$15,683 | -$15,683 |
| $941 (-10%) | -$10,456 | -$10,456 | -$10,456 |
| $993 (-5%) | -$5,228 | -$5,228 | -$5,228 |
| $1025 (-2%) | -$2,091 | -$2,091 | -$2,091 |
| $1046 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $1066 (+2%) | +$2,091 | +$2,091 | +$2,091 |
| $1098 (+5%) | +$5,228 | +$5,228 | +$5,228 |
| $1150 (+10%) | +$10,456 | +$10,456 | +$10,456 |
| $1170 (+12%) โ target | +$12,444 | +$12,444 | +$12,444 |
| $1202 (+15%) | +$15,683 | +$15,683 | +$15,683 |
| $1255 (+20%) | +$20,911 | +$20,911 | +$20,911 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.