Target Price Playground
MU
$1,045.56
🟢
MU IV: 48.7% — LOW
(-36.2% vs 30d avg of 76.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1150 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1045.56 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $990 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $51.0 · Δ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1150 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$5,344 (4.9%) on $109,656 risked, vs +$10,444 (10.0%) for 100 shares on $104,556. Options give 0.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1150 by Dec 18
+$5,344
+4.9% on $109,656 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$10,656
Put floors you at $990
Break-even
$1096.56
+4.88% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
65.51 / -49.12 / 176.51
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $836 (-20%) | -$8,207 | -$9,188 | -$10,221 | -$10,656 |
| $889 (-15%) | -$6,430 | -$7,699 | -$9,246 | -$10,656 |
| $941 (-10%) | -$4,168 | -$5,644 | -$7,583 | -$10,656 |
| $993 (-5%) | -$1,429 | -$3,011 | -$5,129 | -$10,328 |
| $1025 (-2%) | +$432 | -$1,164 | -$3,280 | -$7,191 |
| $1046 (0%) ← spot | +$1,757 | +$171 | -$1,902 | -$5,100 |
| $1066 (+2%) | +$3,146 | +$1,584 | -$417 | -$3,009 |
| $1098 (+5%) | +$5,344 | +$3,839 | +$1,987 | +$128 |
| $1150 (+10%) ← target | +$9,267 | +$7,904 | +$6,370 | +$5,344 |
| $1202 (+15%) | +$13,499 | +$12,312 | +$11,121 | +$10,583 |
| $1255 (+20%) | +$17,959 | +$16,959 | +$16,080 | +$15,811 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.