Target Price Playground
MU
$1,045.56
🟢
MU IV: 48.7% — LOW
(-36.2% vs 30d avg of 76.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1200 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $1050 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $89.22 · Δ 0.55
LONG PUT · $1050 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $81.86 · Δ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MU hits $1200 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns $-2,108 (-12.3%) on $17,108 risked, vs +$15,444 (14.8%) for 100 shares on $104,556. Options give 0.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MU is at $1200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MU hits $1200 by Dec 18
$-2,108
-12.3% on $17,108 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$17,108
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$878.92
-15.94% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
8.52 / -119.38 / 367.3
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MU Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $836 (-20%) | +$7,785 | +$6,035 | +$4,529 | +$4,247 |
| $889 (-15%) | +$5,235 | +$2,828 | +$295 | -$981 |
| $941 (-10%) | +$3,562 | +$578 | -$2,985 | -$6,208 |
| $993 (-5%) | +$2,802 | -$607 | -$4,974 | -$11,436 |
| $1025 (-2%) | +$2,783 | -$792 | -$5,459 | -$14,573 |
| $1046 (0%) ← spot | +$2,947 | -$698 | -$5,478 | -$16,664 |
| $1066 (+2%) | +$3,247 | -$437 | -$5,259 | -$15,461 |
| $1098 (+5%) | +$3,944 | +$258 | -$4,504 | -$12,324 |
| $1150 (+10%) | +$5,716 | +$2,157 | -$2,228 | -$7,096 |
| $1200 (+15%) ← target | +$8,042 | +$4,724 | +$908 | -$2,108 |
| $1255 (+20%) | +$11,199 | +$8,229 | +$5,127 | +$3,359 |
Uses MU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.